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The expected scenario... and the one that actually happened
Flashmag! Issue 168 January 2026
In Washington, Brussels, and London, the scenario seemed clear: the ruble would collapse, Russian banks would crumble, the economy would enter a deep recession, and domestic pressure would force Moscow to back down. This scenario was not absurd. It was based on decades of experience: no modern country had survived long after being excluded from the Western financial system. But very quickly, unease set in. The Russian economy bent, certainly. But it did not break. The ruble recovered. Energy exports continued. Payment channels found workarounds. Trade shifted to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. What was thought impossible was happening: a major power was resisting the ultimate financial weapon.
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